Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak | Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak | Kenneth S. Deffeyes | Excellent discussion of Hubbert and his technical exposition

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Beyond Oil: The Vi...

	Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak Kenneth S. Deffeyes Hill and Wang, 2006 - 224 pages average customer review:based on 46 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

?This book explains both why the decline of our most precious fuel is inevitable and how challenging it will be to cope with what comes next.??Richard E. Smalley, University Professor, Rice University, and 1996 Nobel laureate
With world oil production about to peak and inexorably head toward steep decline, what fuels are available to meet rising global energy demands? That question, once thought to address a fairly remote contingency, has become ever more urgent, as a spate of books has drawn increased public attention to the imminent exhaustion of the economically vital world oil reserves. Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a geologist who was among the first to warn of the coming oil crisis, now takes the next logical step and turns his attention to the earth?s supply of potential replacement fuels. In Beyond Oil, he traces out their likely production futures, with special reference to that of oil, utilizing the same analytic tools developed by his former colleague, the pioneering petroleum-supply authority M. King Hubbert.

?The bad news in this book is made bearable by the author?s witty, conversational writing style. If my college econ textbooks had been written this way, I might have learned economics.? ?Rupert Cutler, The Roanoke Times

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Beyond Oil

Should be required reading especially for anyone who is ignorant or foolish enough to believe "Drill here, drill now" is the solution. The writing is plain English, not geological or oil & gas jargon. Hubbert's peak is carefully explained, and the explanation does not require much understanding of math. The author also explores other energy sources in addition to oil & gas. The basic message is that we need other energy sources now and we had better get cracking.

Excellent discussion of Hubbert and his technical exposition

Deffeyes has written an excellent book on M K Hubbert's 1969 published predictions for future world oil production.The most interesting chapter is chapter 3.It covers the basic logistics model that Hubbert showed fit the data like a glove fitting your hand.Deffeyes has uncovered a small error in Hubbert's exposition.It is presented on p.51.Deffeyes correctly states that production,discoveries,and hits started together."Hits have to initially grow faster than discoveries.Discoveries have to initially grow faster than production"(p.49) Hits has the highest peak and peaked about 1960.Discoveries then has the next highest peak and peaked about 1980.Production(discoveries and hits)peaked around 2000.

The conclusion is that "the major theoretical conclusion is that a straight line requires that production(discoveries,hits) depends linearly on the fraction of oil that is unproduced(undiscovered,unhit)".(Deffeyes,p.51).The major prediction is that the price of oil will be going up constantly.Possible remedies are conservation,more(much more)fuel efficient cars, nuclear power,solar power,wind power,and cogeneration.The one non solution is to try to drill our way out of the problem.This is not possible given the technical constraints of the problem.

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Timely book

I thought this book sets out the peak oil theory and supporting information in a highly readable way. You can argue about whether it applies to just light sweet crude or to oil in all its forms but the distinction is not that relevant in the short term. I found it both readable and very thought provoking. I have been long oil for awhile as a result and that has been very successful.

outstanding synopsis of energy alternatives

A perfect introduction to energy for well educated readers. Short, clear, to the point chapters on the various options from traditional to alternative, full of pithy observations and good humor. Not alarmist, just fact based, clear headed and long sighted.

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Must-have for Peak Oil enthusiasts

While the list of books on this topic continues to grow all the time, this is probably one of the must-have books if you are interested in the topic of Peak Oil. Deffeyes is often quoted in other works, as is his former colleague, H. King Hubbert. Deffeyes comes off as a wise expert when talking about issues directly related to his area of expertise, and an honest layman when talking about things he's not as much of an expert on. This give the book an air of authenticity. It is a fairly short book, but manages to give a good background on the different energy industries related to the question of oil and its possible substitutes. It also gives a pretty succinct summary of the state of reserves and production which can go a long way towards clarifying many common misconceptions, such as the idea that we can drill our way out of the crisis. Deffeyes predicted that peak oil would hit on Thanksgiving Day of 2005. Interestingly, he maintains a web page on which he comments on the latest events. So far he has yet to retract his predictions.

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