books:

	Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization John Robb Wiley, 2008 - 224 pages average customer review:based on 27 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

The counterterrorism expert John Robb reveals how the same technology that has enabled globalization also allows terrorists and criminals to join forces against larger adversaries with relative ease and to carry out small, inexpensive actions?like sabotaging an oil pipeline?that generate a huge return. He shows how combating the shutdown of the world?s oil, high-tech, and financial markets could cost us the thing we?ve come to value the most?worldwide economic and cultural integration?and what we must do now to safeguard against this new method of warfare.

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Welcome to the future, kid.


It sure requires a lot of effort to regard life as a pleasant experience when you have to wonder every day if you're going to get blown up in a bus on your way to work, or if there's going to be a sudden blackout, shortage of water or gas. This may seem like a distant scenario, something happening to some poor "unliberated" underdeveloped state - but according to John Robb, disruptions of this kind can take place anytime, anywhere. In fact, they're being prepared as we speak. New York, Madrid and London were merely a sneak preview - and of course, places like Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Thailand and Chechnya have become classic sites for such disorder. What we are looking at, Robb argues, is a new type of globalized warfare involving small and largely independent "terrorist" cells with lots of cheap and accessible technology (from the internet to explosives). Robb aptly calls them the Global Guerrillas.

Never mind WHY such "nasty people" would want to disrupt your neat way of living: wars have always been fought for myriads of reasons and every murderer can be called a hero, every freedom fighter a terrorist, if you're so inclined. There is nothing particularly extraordinary about people plotting to disrupt other people's way of living (in fact, directly or indirectly, that's what we're all doing, all the time). One of the most refreshing aspects about Robb's book is that he doesn't waste many lines vilifying the global guerrillas, but rather coolly observes and describes their tactics, methods, even finances - and potential to emerge victorious. The one common aspect in all these groups (Al-Qaeda being the most famous) is that they are opposing a state, i.e., a huge organization with the (supposed) monopoly over violence (or security), taxation and all kinds of essential services such as the supply of energy, food, water and health care. And the interesting thing is that the global guerrillas have developed a cunning little trick to actually endanger the legitimacy and power of states: instead of going about waging massive wars with millions of soldiers and billions of explosions (which is really quite expensive), they engage in "systems disruption", damaging or destroying the very infrastructure on which states (and above all the population under their jurisdiction) rely. By blowing up pipelines, electricity grids, bridges, railroads, airplanes and buildings, the guerrillas cause massive damage and financial losses - not to speak of panic and insecurity - all of which end up weighing heavily on the state. For the perpetrators of such attacks, on the other hand, the costs can be minimal, as it is relatively cheap nowadays to organize and execute major disruptive actions. Plus they can be endlessly innovative, learning from each other's mistakes and successes, even though they are not connected or even cooperating with each other. Robb calls this "open-source warfare", analogous to Wikipedia, where millions of people can participate and improve, without need of a "central command". Which, of course, makes it all the more difficult for global guerrillas to be eliminated: you destroy one group here, and in the meantime ten others have sprouted up somewhere else.

Much of the book concentrates on Iraq, not only because it is such an obvious conundrum for America and its allies, but also for its variety of "terrorist" groups wreaking havoc on a daily basis and undermining the West's attempts to "conquer the hearts and minds" of the invaded territory's population. This provides a good basis to observe a (supposedly) powerful state's inability to actually detect, much less control all the insurgency against it. The end-result, Robb predicts, will be the failure of the American intervention. Surprising as that may sound.
With this in mind, Robb provides also countless examples of successful (and quite ingenious) recent operations in other countries, to finally conclude that we have entered a whole new stage in world events: the end of globalization and the beginning of global chaos. As he put it: "Now with the new forms of warfare any small group can wage war... and they will." A chilling prospect, perhaps, but Robb's arguments certainly sound convincing. Especially because he teaches us not to regard warfare as something stable, but rather as en ever evolving human talent, full of surprising twists and turns. The future will be one hell of an adventure. It's just a shame we will (most likely) have to participate in it.

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An interesting argument about globalization's implications for terrorism

This is an interesting little book. I think that it may promise more than it delivers, but its lesson is right on. The Foreword relates a key part of the book's thesis (page ix): "[Examples] involve the idea of turning the complexity and power of a developed modern economy from strengths to vulnerabilities."

For one thing, terrorists can use relatively inexpensive techniques to create huge problems. For instance, it cost al-Qaeda about $500,000 for the 9/11 attacks and cost the American economy about $500 billion worth of damage--in the author's words (page x) "a million-to-one payoff ratio."

Other examples: cheap techniques (explosives) have cost Iraq millions upon millions of dollars in lost oil revenue, as pipelines are destroyed and income lost. The book itself is about (page xiv) "rapid chaotic and unexpected events. . . . 'black swans--events so different from what we know, so unpredictable and hidden by uncertainty, that they are impossible to predict with accuracy."

The book talks about the ability of terrorists to learn and use this learning to advantage against state actors. They tend to be more nimble and this provides an advantage. So, complex globalization presents an attractive target for simple responses by terrorist organizations.

An interesting argument. However, there are some questions that arise because of recent developments in Iraq. Robb believes that the antipathy of a variety of actors to the United States is doom. Whether or not the "surge" ends up working, though, it is clear that in the short run many Iraqis who formerly fought against Americans are now working with them against, for example, al-Qaeda. Will this last? or will the formerly antagonistic and currently cooperative groups just outwait Americans? Who knows? But the current situation (November, 2007) suggests a more fluid situation than the author depicts.

Only time will tell the outcomes in Iraq and against terrorists worldwide. The book has an interesting and even powerful logic. But we must wait to see what the evidence tells us in the future.

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A desk-reference quality work

This book isn't of course as timeless as Lao Tsu's or von Clausewitz's, but it shares space on my desk with these and a few others, simply because it is the only concise fifth-generation warfare (and fourth) reference I've found. John Robb produced a minor watershed which I've tabbed with over a score of Post-It tabs. Nicely written and functionally useful. (Still, by the author's own admission, tentative in the face of our ignorance about the future's potential for yet-unrecognized means of conflict.)


Thought Leader

If you are a traditionalist and are expecting the usual treatise to counterinsurgency then you will be disappointed. This is an out of the box approach to war in the 21st century. This book is not modern updates to Galula, Kitson, Mao or Trinquier. Examples of some of the topics covered include; "Superempowered Competition", "Open Source Warfare", and Guerrilla Entrepreneurs". This book is not for the faint of heart, it will destroy your conventional notions about counterinsurgency and will require you to completely rethink the "Graduate" level art of war.

Terry Tucker, PhD
Mobile Training Team Battle Staff Trainer
Afghanistan

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reviews: page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

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