The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives | Leonard Mlodinow

The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives | Leonard Mlodinow | Marvelous! Marvelous! Marvelous!

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The Drunkard's Wal...

	The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives Leonard Mlodinow Pantheon, 2008 - 272 pages average customer review:based on 44 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.

How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.

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Fascinating book that will change your perspective on life!

I originally checked this book out from the library, but it was so good that I had to buy it. It is an amazing look at chance, randomness, probability and how all those things factor into daily life.

This book explains probabilities and chance better than anything else I have ever read. While he explains mathematical concepts, he keeps the book grounded with practical and engaging anecdotes. For example, he explains the counterintuitive reality that though he tested postive for HIV in a test that had a 1 in 1000 rate of false positives, he actually had only a 9% chance of actually having HIV.

This book should be required reading for everyone--especially public policy makers, who routinely display a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of randomness in life.

You won't be disappointed with The Drunkard's Walk.

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Marvelous! Marvelous! Marvelous!

As a teacher of high school mathematics and statistics, I have read many such books on the subject at hand. Few of them are as readable and enjoyable as The Drunkard's Walk.

What Mlodinow's brings to the table is a great sense of humor and a writing style that is entertaining and engaging, with great stories to go along with the mathematical ideas he shares. He brings in historical anecdotes and psychological research to highlight how mathematical truth and human perception clash. I found myself very impressed by his ability to bring in the perfect study or story to illustrate a point.

Essentially, the book is a course in Statistics 101, but reading it, you'd never know. It is geared to the average intelligent reader, but there are few mathematical formulas or abstractions. Enjoy!

Other related books and how they compare:
Against the Gods- The Remarkable Story of Risk: Much drier. More detail, less fun.

Fooled By Randomness: Arrogant writing style, too philosophical for my taste. Focus on the markets.

Damn Lies and Statistics: Narrow focus on how Statistics can mislead. Good examples, though not as entertaining.

Chances Are: A good read, similar content, though this is more engaging.

Innumeracy: A must read classic by Paulos.

Predictably Irrational: Fun book, similar style but more about behavioral economics (overlaps last chapter of this book)

Sway: Pretty good, but not as overarching as Predictably Irrational

SuperCrunchers: Unimpressive book that I thought didn't prove thesis well.

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Dunkard's Walk-an excellent primer on probability theory and how it affects our daily lives

This book is well written. It describes how probability theory impacts on everyday life. The writing style blends in historical references with real life examples. This makes it interesting to read. Its concepts are similar to the book Innumeracy but I found this book more interesting to read because of the historical aspects.

Entertaining, vivid and fun

This book is a lot of fun. It's an eye-opening jaunt through the surprisingly colorful world of randomness. Interspersed are the vivid stories of those who discovered some of the most powerful mathematical tools ever conceived: Cardano the gambler, the Bernouilli clan (including the villainous Jakob!) and Blaise Pascal (who conceived a wager on the existence of God).

The insights from probability and statistics have a direct impact on our lives whether it is assessing the real chance you have a life-threatening disease, to deciding how and where to invest your money. They also account for some of the strange coincidences you read and wonder about in the paper. How was it that a German 6/49 lottery in 1995 drew the very same 6 numbers in two consecutive draws?

Then there is the tragic misuse of numbers: Sally Clark in Britain who was convicted of murdering her children by a prosecutor using bad statistics; and the OJ Simpson case where the acquittal was partly based on an erroneous probability argument.

I would give this book 5 stars if not for one quibble. Some of the explanatory language for the mathematical concepts could have been made clearer. For example the section on Bayes theorem and false positives could have benefited from diagrams. Visualizing the different sample subsets would help make this easier to understand. The explanation of the classic 'Let's Make A Deal' has been done before but here there is no extra attempt to make it accessible.

Despite this concern, this book is well worth the effort for the educated layperson.

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Statistic expalined without maths

This is an excellent background to the concepts behind statistics, randomness and probability, all without any of those nasty equations, or a single mathematical symbol in sight.

Well written and easy to understand. This is an excellent primer for anyone wondering about what statistics is good for or how randomness works.

Should be compulsory for every uni student who procrastinates about stats homework because it all seems pointless and just maths....

reviews: page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

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